Trump-Biden Spread, 2020 Presidential Election – TALKING POINTS

  • Biden-Trump spread widening but betting averages paint a much different picture
  • Polls taken exactly four years ago showed Clinton in the lead – what are the lessons?
  • AUD/NZD testing critical cross-section between 5-year resistance and key support

62 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Leading up to and during the Republican National Convention, the spread between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden have narrowed. However, polling data as of September 2 show Mr. Biden ahead of Trump on average by 8 points. Having said that, RealClearPolitics’ betting average between the two candidates is at its narrowest spread since late-May/early-June when the polls started to favor Biden.

2020 Election Polling Data

AUD/NZD Retests 5-Year Inflection Point. Biden-Trump Spread Widens

Source: RealClearPolitics

Key Event to Watch: First Presidential Debate on September 29

With a relatively sparse political docket, the next major event to watch for pertaining to the 2020 election will be the first presidential debate on September 29 in Cleveland. Fox News anchor Chris Wallace is set to moderate the first debate, according to an announcement put forth by the non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).

Seeing how the polls are impacted by the debates will be crucial, though it should be noted that data – particularly as it relates to politics – can be misleading. On this day four years ago, the spread between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was 4.1 points. Even on election day, the spread was wider than then it is now between Biden and Trump, and the outcome was counter to expectations.

In short, the lesson to take away is the fickle nature of polls and geopolitical risks in general. As a result, while helpful, polling statistics may not entirely represent the voting outcome even on the day of the election. Having said that, market volatility may still ensue leading up to, during and after the upcoming presidential debates because of the embedded premium put on polling data ahead of an election.

For additional political updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

AUD/NZD Analysis

AUD/NZD is trading at a crucial cross-section between former resistance-turned-support at 1.0809 and the upper crust of a five-year descending resistance channel. Following the release of worse-than-expected Australian GDP, the pair experienced its biggest one-day decline since the pandemic selloff in March. How AUD/NZD interacts with this level could be trend-defining.

AUD/NZD – Daily Chart

Chart showing AUD/NZD

chart created using TradingView

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri on Twitter





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