DailyFX Education Summit: Trade Your Market

DailyFX Education Summit: Trade Your Market


DAILYFX SUMMER EDUCATION SUMMIT

TRADE YOUR MARKET

SPONSORED BY IG AND NADEX

The DailyFX Education Summit will be held online from September 15 to September 17. Attend all three days, just one day, or even just one session! Register now!

Day 1: September 15, 2020

The basics of trading oil and gold

12pm-12:45pm Eastern – Christopher Vecchio, CFA, DailyFX

New to the oil and gold markets? Get a foundation of what’s important to know to trade in these markets, like what data you should be aware of, what events can move these markets, and things you should consider before jumping into the action.

Trading oil and gold with knock-outs & binary options

1pm-1:45pm Eastern – Todd Rich, Nadex

Looking for price action in oil & gold markets? Want to take a directional trade in an easy to understand environment with defined risk/reward? Perhaps Nadex Knock-Outs or Binary Options are right for you.

Trading FX proxies for gold & oil

2pm-2:45pm Eastern – Kevin Downey, IG

When the price of oil or gold moves, it can directly impact various foreign exchange markets. Learn what forex markets are impacted by these commodities and how you can potentially take advantage of that movement.

Macroeconomic considerations for oil & gold in the Covid-19 economy

3pm-3:45pm Eastern – Bryan Caprice, Keep Trading Simple

Will the global pandemic permanently cripple oil demand? How could that impact the broader markets, central bank actions, inflation, and the price of gold? Join this session to get a grasp of how Covid-19 could continue to change commodities and FX markets.

Day 2: September 16, 2020

A global macro perspective to trading risk

12pm-12:45pm Eastern – Peter Hanks, DailyFX

The markets – what are they? Learn about how the global economies are interlinked and how the various relationships impact how risk is translated into global equity index prices.

Trading global equity indices in Nadex markets

1pm-1:45pm Eastern – Adam McAden, Nadex

Beyond the basics, let’s dive into technical analysis concepts and the tools available on the Nadex trading platform: moving averages, trend lines, support and resistance, Fibonacci retracements – all put into action to trade indices markets on Nadex.

Trading Forex around global macroeconomic events

2pm-2:45pm Eastern – Manal Hossain, IG

Equity markets represent one of the strongest undercurrents of investor strength and weaknesses available. Learn how these most-recognizable, relative confidence signals can be represented naturally through FX markets.

Global Equities and FICC: Bubbles or a New Normal

3pm-3:45pm Eastern – Daniel Dubrovsky, DailyFX

Whether US indices pushing record highs this year or other risk-leaning assets catching a bid, a backdrop of recession and low yield doesn’t seem to be slowing the market’s charge. Is this the hallmark of a financial system running to exhaustion or simply a new normal?

Day 3: September 17, 2020

Trading the World with FX

12pm-12:45pm Eastern – James Stanley, DailyFX

FX is the largest market in the world but, in the US, rarely gets the focus or attention of other markets like stocks or commodities. But this very important asset class is actually related to many of those markets and can help to simplify a truly ‘macro’ trading approach. In this session, you’ll see the connections around FX markets while also learning a systematic approach to tackle the markets.

Identifying and trading some of the top themes in foreign exchange

1pm-1:45pm Eastern – David Caffrey, IG

Forex is one of the most liquid markets in the world. Learn about some of the biggest trades in history – from the US Dollar’s charge on safe haven appeal to the ‘Breaking of the Bank of England’ – and what undercurrents can pose key themes moving forward.

Short-term, intraday FX trade opportunities

2pm-2:45pm Eastern – Dan Cook, Nadex

Time and volatility. Most traders don’t have the time to stare at a screen all day waiting for that one volatility opportunity. Discover how to overcome this age-old trading hurdle and learn simple strategies that can be implemented in just a few minutes to help you find opportunities, no matter the amount of volatility in the markets.

Trading FX volatility going into the US elections

3pm-3:45pm Eastern – Rob Booker, InvestPub

The forthcoming US elections bring with them uncertainty, specifically in regards to potential changes in US foreign and domestic policy that could have significant impact on global economies and the markets. Join this session to get an analysis of what to look out for and possible what-if scenarios on how this could create opportunities in the FX markets.

Trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. CFDs are not available for US residents. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information contained does not constitute investment advice.

Nadex and DailyFX are affiliated subsidiaries of IG Group PLC. Trading on Nadex involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Nadex is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. None of the material included herein is to be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument on Nadex or elsewhere. Nadex is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.





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Silver Sideways as Price Action Seeks Direction

Silver Sideways as Price Action Seeks Direction


Spot Silver Analysis:

Silver Consolidates Following FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar strengthened slightly after the Federal Reserve reiterated its dovish position in last night’s FOMC meeting, adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach for policy going forward. While policy remains unchanged, demand for Gold, Silver and other safe-haven assets retreated, pushing price action back into its range-bound state.

Visit the DailyFX Educational Center to discover why news events are Key to Forex Fundamental Analysis

The recent surge in Silver has seen price action favoring the bulls, with the precious metal testing the psychological level of 30.00 in August. However, failing to break above this level, saw bears exerting downward pressure on XAG/USD, into a zone of confluency between key Fibonacci levels which have provided support and resistance for some time. Meanwhile, the Stochastic indicator remains above 80, a possible indication that Silver is currently trading in overbought territory.

XAG/USD Monthly Chart

Silver Price Forecast: Silver Sideways as Price Action Seeks Direction

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

Silver Remains Above Moving Average – For Now

From a short-term perspective, the daily chart below highlights that price action remains above the 50-day Moving Average (MA) and a bullish continuation is still likely. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has crossed below the signal line from above, possibly indicating that upward momentum has decreased although the fact that it remains above zero, means that the trend has not reversed just yet.

A key level of support, now remains at the psychological level of 26.00, which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the move between March 2011 high and March 2020 low. If bears can break below this level, selling pressure may increase with 25.00 being the next level of interest.

XAG/USD Daily Chart

Silver Price Forecast: Silver Sideways as Price Action Seeks Direction

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

On the contrary, as long as 26.00 holds as support, bulls may be able to regain favor, in an effort to test August levels or at least in an effort to reach the psychological level of 28.00.

Client Sentiment

Silver Price Forecast: Silver Sideways as Price Action Seeks Direction

IGCS shows retail traders are currently showing a bullish bias to Silver, with 88% of tradersholding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long is suggestive of a short-term price move to the downside.

— Written by Tammy Da Costa, Market Writer for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707





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Bank of England to Set Path for GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Bank of England to Set Path for GBP/USD, EUR/GBP


GBP price, Brexit news and analysis:

  • The Bank of England is expected to keep all its monetary settings unchanged Thursday but there could be a hint of more stimulus to come – potentially weakening GBP.
  • Elsewhere, the war of words between the UK and the EU on their future relationship persists as Boris Johnson continues to try to push his Internal Market Bill through the UK Parliament.

GBP/USD Outlook Dependent on Bank of England

The key risk event for Sterling traders this session will be the latest announcement from the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, due at midday local time. The UK central bank is all but certain to keep interest rates and its bond-buying program unchanged but any hint of more stimulus to come would likely strengthen EUR/GBP and weaken GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Price Chart, Two-Hour Timeframe (September 1-17, 2020)

Latest GBP/USD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

However, as the two-hour chart above shows, there is support for GBP/USD just below 1.28 so any decline could stall at that level despite an uptick in USD after the Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would keep US interest rates near zero until 2023 but decided not to boost its stimulus program.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily-12%9%-2%
Weekly3%4%3%

Post-Brexit trade deals in focus

Elsewhere, the war of words between the UK and the EU on their post-Brexit relationship continues, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying the chances of a UK-EU trade deal are fading. US Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Joe Biden has also warned the UK that it must honor the Northern Ireland peace deal or there will no UK-US trade agreement.

Biden was referring to the Internal Market Bill currently wending its way through the Westminster Parliament, a Bill that would break parts of the Brexit divorce treaty relating to the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish republic.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to have placated rebels in his ruling Conservative Party but the Bill still faces possible amendments by dissenters and will likely struggle to pass through the House of Lords, although the Lords have no power to block it.

We have a forex trader’s guide to the Bank of England here

We look at currencies regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex





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Australian Dollar Blossoms on Strong Local Jobs Data, Better Times Ahead?

Australian Dollar Blossoms on Strong Local Jobs Data, Better Times Ahead?


Australian Dollar, AUD/USD Analysis, RBA, Australian Employment Data – Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar popped on better-than-expected local employment data
  • RBA has pointed to signs of recovery but warned it will be bumpy, uneven
  • Economic stabilization may push AUD higher, tension with China a risk

AUD/USD Jumps on Australian Jobs Data

The Australian Dollar popped higher after local jobs data broadly beat expectations. The actual employment change came in at 111K, dramatically outpacing the -50K estimate and prior print at 114.7K. The unemployment rate for August came in lower than anticipated at 6.8%, over 1 percent lower than the 7.7% estimate.

AUD/USD – 15-Minute Chart

Australian Dollar Blossoms on Strong Local Jobs Data, Better Times Ahead?

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

Data out of Australia has started to plateau after a brief interim of outperformance brought about partially by overly-pessimistic assessments of the virus’ economic impact earlier this year. The recent publication of stellar jobs data comes in sharp contrast to what markets were anticipating, though the real question is how will it impact RBA monetary policy?

RBA Monetary Policy Decision Recap, Outlook

At the latest monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced no change to its cash rate and yield target for 3-year sovereigns at 25 basis points. They also announced an expansion of the size of its Term Funding Facility due to its effectiveness as part of a broad parcel of stimulus measures implemented during the credit crunch in March.

The central bank conveyed a strong tone of support for financial markets, stressing that “the Board is committed to do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses in Australia… [and] will maintain highly accommodative settings as long as is required and continues to consider how further monetary measures could support the recovery”RBA.

The central bank said that it will continue to purchase government securities as necessary with an intent to keep the yield target in place until “progress is being made towards the goals for full employment and inflation”. While a recovery is underway in most of Australia, the uneven global recuperation will likely weigh on Australia’s export sector.

Read my weekly Australian Dollar forecast here!

China Tension Not Helping Australia’s Economy

Australia has also been under stress by virtue of escalating bilateral tensions with China, the former’s largest trading partner. The geopolitical friction escalated after Canberra called for an international investigation into the origins and handling of the coronavirus. China has unofficially responded by slapping numerous tariffs shortly after those measures were proposed.

Looking ahead, if data continues to show signs of stabilization and the urgency to introduce additional stimulus wanes, AUD may rise. Having said that, the extraordinary uncertainty of the situation means that the Australian Dollar could quickly reverse if other external factors – like tension with China or the multi-iterated ripple effect of the US election – dampen risk appetite.

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter





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NZD/USD Rate Outlook Unfazed by 12.4% Decline in New Zealand GDP

NZD/USD Rate Outlook Unfazed by 12.4% Decline in New Zealand GDP


New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD preserves the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week amid the limited reaction to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the update to New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may push the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to the sidelines in September as the growth rate contracts less-than-expected in the second quarter of 2020.

NZD/USD Rate Outlook Unfazed by 12.4% Decline in New Zealand GDP

NZD/USD struggles to take out the weekly high (0.6759) as the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) show no change in the interest rate dot-plot, but the pullback from the yearly high (0.6789) may end up being an exhaustion in the bullish price action rather than a change in trend as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. vow to “increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace.”

Image of DailyFX economic calendar for New Zealand

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen if the 12.4% contraction in New Zealand GDP will influence the monetary policy outlook as the region faces its first recession since 2010, but the data may do little to sway the RBNZ as “output and employment recover sooner than projected in our May Monetary Policy Statement.

In turn, the RBNZ may move to the sidelines after expanding the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program to NZ$100 billion in August, and Governor Adrian Orr and Co. may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the September 23 interest rate decision even though the central bank insists that “a package of additional monetary instruments must remain in active preparation.”

Until then, current market trends may keep NZD/USD afloat as the Fed’s balance sheet climbs back above $7 trillion in August, and the tilt in retail sentiment looks poised to persist over the coming days as traders have been net-short the pair since mid-June.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for NZD/USD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows only 38.45% of traders are net-long NZD/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.60 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 6.99% lower than yesterday and 26.50% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.00% higher than yesterday and 8.87% higher from last week.

The recent decline in net-long position could be a function of profit-taking behavior as NZD/USD struggles to take out the weekly high (0.6759), but the rise in net-short interest suggests the tilt in retail sentiment will carry into the end of the month as 39.35% of traders were net-long the pair earlier this week.

With that said, current market trends may keep NZD/USD afloat ahead of the next RBNZ meeting, and the recent weakness in the exchange rate may prove to be an exhaustion in the bullish price action rather than a change in trend as it trades to fresh yearly high (0.6789) in September.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of NZD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, NZD/USD cleared the February high (0.6503) in June as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke above 70 for the first time in 2020, with the exchange rate taking out the January high (0.6733) in September following the close above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6710 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6740 (23.6% expansion).
  • However, lack of momentum to break/close above the 0.6790 (50% expansion) region pushed NZD/USD towards the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.6630 (78.6% expansion), but the pullback from the yearly high (0.6789) may prove to be an exhaustion in the bullish price action rather than a change in trend as the exchange rate retains the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week.
  • Need a closing price above the 0.6710 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6740 (23.6% expansion) region to open up the 0.6790 (50% expansion) area, which lines up with the 2020 high (0.6789), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6850 (38.2% expansion) to 0.6870 (50% retracement).

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong





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Gold, Dollar & Nasdaq React to FOMC Decision, Fresh Projections

Gold, Dollar & Nasdaq React to FOMC Decision, Fresh Projections


GOLD, US DOLLAR, NASDAQ – MARKETS REACT TO SEPTEMBER 2020 FED MEETING

  • FOMC decision leaves the target federal funds rate on hold near zero as expected
  • Fed officials upgraded economic projections for GDP, unemployment and inflation
  • Nasdaq edges higher while the US Dollar and gold price action whipsaw in response

The Federal Reserve just released its latest monetary policy statement where the central bank reiterated its dovish position. The September 2020 FOMC Statement stated that the benchmark federal funds rate was left unchanged at 0.00-0.25% as expected. The Fed announcement also revealed intent to continue purchasing Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace. Interestingly, two Fed officials dissented from the latest FOMC decision as they opt for greater flexibility on policy going forward.

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FOMC SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS – SEPTEMBER 2020

fomc decision economic projections september 2020 federal reserve meeting

Chart Source: Federal Reserve

The September Fed announcement also included updated quarterly economic projections. The Federal Reserve upgraded nearly all of the key economic variables tracked – like real GDP, unemployment, and inflation – compared to June forecasts.

US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: 5-MINUTE TIME FRAME (16 SEP 2020 INTRADAY)

US Dollar Index Price Chart DXY

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

The US Dollar reacted negatively immediately after the September FOMC statement crossed market wires. USD price action has since whipsawed back higher to trade about flat intraday, however, and could be due to relatively better US economic outlook.

GOLD PRICE CHART: 5-MINUTE TIME FRAME (16 SEP 2020 INTRADAY)

Gold price chart xau usd

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Gold price action is mirroring the direction of the US Dollar. The precious metal extended higher right after the FOMC statement was released, but has since dropped back toward session lows. Gold could stay relatively supported, however, with the Federal Reserve looking likely to let inflation moderately overshoot its 2% average objective.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily-3%11%-1%
Weekly0%2%0%

NASDAQ PRICE CHART: 5-MINUTE TIME FRAME (15 SEP TO 16 SEP 2020)

nasdaq price chart stocks react to september 2020 fomc decision

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

As for major stock indices, the Nasdaq is pushing higher as investor risk appetite remains unscathed with the Fed reiterating its ‘lower for longer’ stance and intent on keeping the printing press greased up. After the digesting the immediate reaction to the September 2020 FOMC statement and updated economic projections, traders now shift focus to the follow-up press conference led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 18:30 GMT.

Keep Reading – US Dollar Price Forecast: USD Descending Triangle for FOMC

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight





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