British Pound (GBP) – GBP/USD Forecast, Chart and Analysis:

  • Sterling up against the USD but lower against a range of other currencies.
  • EU/UK trade talks continue in the London this week.
  • Bank of England warns over negative interest rate implementation.

Sterling Struggles to Push Higher

The EU/UK trade talks continue this week in the London after last week’s negotiations were cut short last Thursday with little progress made. Both sides have agreed to accelerate talks but the main areas of disagreement – fishing access, the role of the ECJ and a level playing field – remain and a middle ground will need to be found quickly.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has reportedly written to UK lenders to warning them that taking UK interest rates into negative territory would be a significant operational undertaking that may take up to 12 months for lenders to implement. While the Bank of England previously said that a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) was not currently being considered, it seems that governor Bailey is keeping the option of NIRP open, a policy that would likely weaken Sterling going forward.

GBP/USD is trading either side of 1.2500 but with little conviction either way. The current weakness in the US dollar is keeping the pair propped up but Sterling will need its own driver/s to push the pair higher. Short-term resistance off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2517 before recent highs between 1.2530 and 1.2544 come into play. GBP/USD broke above the 50-dma last week and has opened above the 20-dma today, giving the pair a short-term boost. Sterling is currently quoted around 0.30% lower against a range of other currencies.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (December 2019 – July 6, 2020)

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Uplift Driven by US Dollar Weakness

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily16%0%8%
Weekly-10%29%5%

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling (GBP) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.





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