Market sentiment analysis:

  • Trader confidence is high on hopes of a swift and strong economic recovery after the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • However, they may have underestimated the importance of the turmoil on US streets and ongoing US-China trade tensions.
  • The rally in risk-on assets such as stocks, crude oil, the base metals and currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD could therefore reverse at any time.

Trader confidence too high?

Traders have become increasingly confident of a swift and strong global economic recovery from the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic, bidding up the prices of “risk-on” assets such as stocks, crude oil, copper and currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Price Chart, Four-Hour Timeframe (May 18 – June 2, 2020)

Latest AUD/USD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily8%-2%1%
Weekly8%-5%-1%

For now, the upward trend in risk assets looks like continuing. However, the violence on US streets and the ongoing US-China trade dispute could yet send them down again in due course.

In this webinar, I looked at the trends in the major currency, commodity and stock markets, at the forward-looking data on the economic calendar this week, at the IG Client Sentiment page on the DailyFX website, and at the IG Client Sentiment reports that accompany it. You might also like to check out the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts.

Interested in volatility trading? Get tips to manage your risk in this podcast

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below





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